Has Trans Identification Among Young Americans Peaked?

A viral report claiming a decline in transgender identification among American youth has electrified conservative circles. This graphic, in particular, was reposted all over X in recent weeks.

Matt Walsh declared on X, “Transgenderism is effectively over. We destroyed it. Clearest and most decisive cultural win that conservatives have ever achieved.” Elon Musk amplified the graphic to his 200 million followers.

The data, however, tell a more cautious story.

The report—authored by Dr. Eric Kaufmann at the Centre for Heterodox Social Science—charts a recent decline, stating that the population of trans identifying young adults grew steadily from the 2010s to 2023. It states that after peaking in 2023 at seven percent, 2025 data suggests under four percent of young adults identify as trans in 2025. Those who identified as “non-heterosexual” also decreased 10 points, and freshmen identify less with the LGBTQ community than seniors.

The report offers some significant insight into shifts in sexual orientation trends overall, but as it went viral for its specific suggestion about trans identifying young adults, it is worth looking at a summary of the data on that specific identity.

The report’s most heavily relied upon source is FIRE, the Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression. FIRE conducts annual campus surveys of over 50,000 undergraduates at research universities.

It is of note that while the FIRE study shows a decline in LGBTQ+ identification broadly, the options provided in the survey include “gender identities” such as “genderqueer” or “nonbinary.” Transgender is not an option in the survey, providing no insight into trends in this particular identity. Additionally, the FIRE data points used focus largely on selective, elite institutions, beginning with 257 research schools and ultimately zooming in to Ivy Leagues only to provide a more consistently representative trend. It is directly from the FIRE survey that Kaufmann draws the conclusion that transgender identity cut in half from a 2023 peak to 2025.

The study also uses the Hire Education Research Institute (HERI) freshman survey, a study incoming freshman of similar sample size but of a more broad population, to report on sexual orientation trends (see clarifications on page 3 of the report, found in a free PDF here). While looking at the conclusion of a sharp decline in transgender identifying students, it is important to note that the HERI survey does not ask a specific question about gender identity. The sample size of this data also decreased by hundreds of thousands from 2019 - 2024 and offers no 2025 data.

A study from Brown University showed a similar “peak in 2023, drop in 2025” pattern for non-heterosexual identifying students. Again, there is no transgender category from which to draw data. Brown is also an elite institution.

Kaufmann refers to his general population sources as “less definitive.” The Cooperative Election Study shows a decline in non-heterosexual identifying individuals and offers no data for 2025.

The General Social Survey shows a decline in bisexual identifying adults from 2022 to 2024.

The Center for Disease Control (CDC) corroborates the idea that non-heterosexual identification peaked around 2023. This survey is of high school aged students and offers no more recent data.

One of Kaufmann’s conclusions is, “Examining all data sources on the macro heterosexuality trend among young Americans illustrates a common pattern, albeit with some variability.”

With mantras today suggesting sentiments like “trans women are women”, it is not conclusive to suggest a trans identifying individual would select a box like “genderqueer” or “nonbinary.” Furthermore, you could not decipher which one they might choose even if they did go such a route.

Kaufmann’s data does attest to what he states in this conclusion. Helpful hints towards shifts in LGBTQ identification exist. The study, however, does not present the thorough viral through line that individuals like Elon Musk and Matt Walsh suggests it does: that trans identification is tanking across the board with young people.

While the data does not fully confirm the “clearest and most decisive cultural win that conservatives have ever achieved,” it does give reason to be optimistic. Mark Regnerus of Public Discourse shares what the data does show: gender ideology, particularly affirmation for gender transition of youth, is not rising.